I subscribe to a number of newsletters about the financial markets. One of my favorites is John Mauldin's Thoughts from the Frontline, which always provides a viewpoint outside the mainstream media. Call it contrarian, against the grain, or just plain kooky (it's not, but call it what you will), it serves up perspectives from folks deep in the industries they work in and follow.
It's always good to remember that the industry insiders make money whereas the pundits, authors, and economists don't always fare so well.
Also remember that nobody has ever become filthy rich by following the crowd; rather, it's those that run counter to the current "intelligence" that seemingly make money out of nothing. George Soros calls them "Alchemists."
Here's the link to get yourself on John's mailing list.
Here's an excerpt of his latest letter:
Earnings and Mr. Bear
July 25, 2008
Earnings and Mr. Bear
Earnings Before Bad Stuff
How Ugly Can it Get?
A Lean Mean Reversion Machine
Some Thoughts on Energy
Oregon, Maine and a Wedding
"The stock market is a voting machine in the short run and a weighing machine in the long run." - Benjamin Graham
The voting part of the equation is tempered by fear and greed. It is largely emotional, although investors like to think of themselves as rational players. That emotion is driven by views of the future. If you can be confident of large and growing returns, you are less likely to be swayed by the erratic movements of a stock. But as confidence wanes? Well, that is the stuff that bear markets are made of.
Because at the end of the day, what the market weighs is earnings and the ability of a company to reliably produce them. This week we look at what earnings are likely to be over the next year and see if we can discern what that suggests for the markets. We also take a look at the energy markets, the possibility of a further drop in the price of oil, and muse on what a sane energy policy for the world would look like. There is a lot to cover, but it should make for an interesting letter.
I highly recommend that you subscribe (I receive nothing in return for this endorsement); if you find that you don't like it, you can always unsubscribe at any time.
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